A French Slant on Valuation

Last Thursday, I went along to an event organized by the Club Finance Innovation on the topic of “Independent valuations for the buy-side: expectations, challenges and solutions”.

The event was held at the Palais Brongniart in Paris, which, for those who don’t know (like me till Thursday), was built in the years 1807-1826 by the architect Brongniart by order of Napoleone Bonaparte, who wanted the building to permanently host the Paris stock exchange.

Speakers at the roundtable were:

• Eric Benhamou, CEO  Pricing Partners
• Francis Cornut, Président  DeriveXperts
• Jean-Marc Eber, Président LexiFi
• Patrick Hénaff, Associated Professor at the University of Bretagne (see model validation paper for additional background)
• Claude Martini, CEO  Zeliade Systems

The event focussed on the role of the buy-side in financial markets, looking in particular at the concept of independent valuations and how this has taken an important role after the financial downturn.  However, all the speakers agreed that remains a large gap between the sell-side and buy-side in terms of competences and expertise in the field of independent valuations. The buy-side lacks the systems for a better understanding of financial products and should align itself to the best practices of the sell-side and bigger hedge funds.

The roundtable was started by Francis Cornut of DeriveXperts, who gave the audience a definition of independent valuation. Whilst valuation could be defined as the “set of data and models used to explain the result of a valuation”, Cornut highlighted how the difficulty is in saying what independent means; there is in fact a general confusion on what this concept represents: internal confusion, for example between the front office and risk control department of an institution, but also external confusion, when valuations are done by third-parties.

Cornut provided three criteria that an independent valuation should respect:

• Autonomy, which should be both technical and financial;
• Credibility and transparency;
• Ethics, i.e.: being able to resist to market/commercial pressure and deliver a valuation which is free from external influences/opinions.

Independent valuations are the way forward for a better understanding of complex, structured financial products. Cornut advocated the need for financial parties (clients, regulators, users and providers) to invest more and understand the importance of independent valuations, which will ultimately improve risk management.

Jean-Marc Eber, President LexiFi, agreed that the ultimate objective of independent valuations is to allow financial institutions to better understand the market. To accomplish this, Eber pointed to the fact that when we speak about services to clients, we should first think of what are their real needs. The bigger umbrella of “buy-side” implies in fact different needs and there is often a contradiction on what regulators want: on one side, having independent valuations provided by independent third parties; on the other side, independent valuations really mean that internal users/staff do understand what there is underline the products that a company have.In the same way, we don’t just need to value products but also measure their risk and periodically  re-value them.It is important, in fact, to have the whole picture of the product being evaluated in order to make the buy-side more competitive.

Another point on which the speakers agreed is traceability: as Eber said, financial products don’t exist just as they are, but they go under transformation and change several times. Therefore, the market needs to follow the products across its life cycle till its maturity stage and this pose a technology challenge, in providing scenario analysis for compliance and keeping track of the audit trail.

At the question, ‘what has the crisis changed’ panellists answered:

Eber: the crisis showed the need to be more competent and technical to avoid risk. He highlighted the need to understand the product and its underlying. Many speak of having a central repository for OTCs, obligations, etc but this needs more thinking from the regulators and the financial markets. Moreover, the markets should focus more on quality data and transparency.

Eric Benhamou, CEO pricing Partners, sees an evolution of the market as the crisis showed underestimated risks which are now being taken in consideration.

Claude Martini, CEO Zeliade, advocated the need for financial markets to implement best practices for product valuations: buy-side should apply the same practices already adopted by the sell-side and verify the hypotheses, price and risk related to a financial product.  

Cornut admitted  things have changed since 2005, when they launched DerivExperts and nobody seemed to be interested in independent valuations. People would ask what value they would get from an investment in independent valuations: yes, regulators are happy but what’s the benefit for me?

This is changing now that financial institutions know that a deeper understanding of financial products increases their ability to push the products to their clients. The speech I enjoyed the most was from Patrick Hénaff, associated professor at the University of Bretagne and formerly Global Head of Quantitative Analysis - Commodites at Merrill Lynch / Bank of America.

He took a more academic approach and contested the fact that having two prices to confront is thought to reduce the incertitude on the product but highlighting as this is not always the case. I found interesting his idea of giving a product price with a confidence interval or a ‘toxic index’ which would represent the incertitude about the product and reproduce the model risk which may originate from it.

We speak too often about the risk associated to complex products but Hénaff, explained how the risk exists even on simpler products, for example the calculation of VAR on a given stock positioning. A stock is extremely volatile and we can’t know its trend; providing a confidence interval is therefore crucial. What is new instead, it is the interest that many are showing in assigning a price to a determinate risk, whilst before model risk was considered a mere operational risk coming out from the calculation process. Today, a good valuation of the risk associated to a product can result in less regulatory capital used to cover the risk and as such it is gaining much more interest from the market.

Henaff describes two approaches currently taken from academic research on valuations:

1) Adoption of statistic simulation in order to identify the risk deriving from an incorrect calibration of the model. This consists in taking historical data and test the model, through simulations and scenarios, in order to measure the risk associated in choosing a model instead of another;)

2) Have more quality data. Lack of quality data implies that models chosen are inaccurate as it is difficult to identify exactly what model we should be using to price a product.

 

Model risk, which as said above was before considered  an operational risk, now becomes of extremely importance as it can free up capital. Hénaff suggested that is key to find for model risk the equivalent of the VAR for market risk, a normalized measure. He also spoke about the concept of a “Model validation protocol”, giving the example of what happens in the pharmaceutical and biologic sectors: before launching a new pill into the market, this is tested several times.

Whilst in finance products are just given with their final valuation, the pharmaceutical sector provides a “protocol” which describes the calculations, analysis and processes used in order to get to the final value and their systems are organized to provide a report which would show all the deeper detail. To reduce risk, valuations should be a pre-trade process and not a post-trade.

This week, the A-Team group published a valuations benchmarking study which shows how buy-side institutions are turning more and more often to third-parties valuations, driven mainly by risk management, regulations and client needs. Many of the institutions interviewed also admitted that they will increase their spending in technology to automate and improve the pricing process, as well as the data source integration and the workflow.

This is in line on what has been said at the event I attended and confirmed by the technology representatives speaking at the roundtable.

I would like to end with what Hénaff said: there can’t be a truly independent valuation without transparency of the protocols used to get to that value.

Well, Rome wasn’t built in a day (and as it is my city we’re speaking about, I can say there is still much to build, but let’s not get into this!) but there is a great debate going on, meaning that financial institutions are aware of the necessity to take a step forward. Much is being said about the need for more transparency and a better understanding of complex, structured financial products and still there is a lot to debate.  Easier said than done I guess but, as Napoleon would say, victory belongs to the most persevering!

Analytics Management by Sybase and Platform

I went along to a good event at Sybase New York this morning, put on by Sybase and Platform Computing (the grid/cluster/HPC people, see an old article for some background). As much as some of Sybase's ideas in this space are competitive to Xenomorph's, some are very complimentary and I like their overall technical and marketing direction in focussing on the issue of managing of data and analytics within financial markets (given that direction I would, wouldn't I?...). Specifically, I think their marketing pitch based on moving away from batch to intraday risk management is a good one, but one that many financial institutions are unfortunately (?) a long way away from.

The event started with a decent breakfast, a wonderful sunny window view of Manhattan and then proceeded with the expected corporate marketing pitch for Sybase and Platform - this was ok but to be critical (even of some of my own speeches) there is only so much you can say about the financial crisis. The presenters described two reference architectures that combined Platform's grid computing technology with Sybase RAP and the Aleri CEP Engine, and from these two architectures they outlined four usage cases.

The first use case was for strategy back testing. The architecture for this looked fine but some questions were raised from the audience about the need for distributed data cacheing within the proposed architecture to ensure that data did not become the bottleneck. One of the presenters said that distributed cacheing was one option, although data cacheing (involving "binning" of data) can limit the computational flexibility of a grid solution. The audience member also added that when market data changes, this can cause temporary but significant issues of cache consistency across a grid as the change cascades from one node to another.

Apparently a cache could be implemented in the Aleri CEP engine on each grid node, or the Platform guy said that it was also possible to hook in a client's own C/C++ solution into Platform to achieve this, and that their "Data Affinity" offering was designed to assist with this type of issue. In summary their presentation would have looked better with the distributed cacheing illustrated in my view, and it begged the question as to why they did not have an offering or partner in this technical space. To be fair, when asked whether the architecture had any performance issues in this way, they said for the usage case they had then no it didn't - so on that simple and fundamental aspect they were covered.

They had three usage cases for the second architecture, one was intraday market risk, one was counterparty risk exposure and one was intraday option pricing. On the option pricing case, there was some debated about whether the architecture could "share" real-time objects such as zero curves, volatility surfaces etc. Apparently this is possible, but again would have benefitted by being illustrated first as an explicit part of the architecture.

There was one question about the usage of the architecture applied to transactional problems, and as usual for an event full of database specialists there was some confusion as to whether we were talking about database "transactions" or financial transactions. I think it was the latter, but this wasn't answered too clearly but neither was the question asked clearly I guess - maybe they could have explained the counterparty exposure usage case a bit more to see if this met some of the audience member's needs.

The latter question on transactions above got a conversation going on about resilliancy within the architecture, given that the Sybase ASE database engine is held in-memory for real-time updates whilst the historic data resides on shared disk in Sybase IQ, their column-based database offering. Again full resilience is possible across the whole architecture (Sybase ASE, IQ, Aleri and the Symphony Grid from Platform) but this was not illustrated this time round.

Overall good event with some decent questions and interaction.

Dodd Frank Regulation - being seen to be doing something?

I went along to a Six Telekurs event "Securities Valuations: Is the Price Right?" last week - good event with some interesting speakers, most notably Paul Atkins of Patomak Partners to talk about the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act 2010. Paul is based out of Washington and was not very complimentary about what has been going on.

He started by saying that the Act was very large in size, with over 2319 pages (compared to SarbOx with only 60) and given this size he suggested that you could guess how many in Congress had actually read it. Background to the Act were:

• "Political Tailwinds" such as:
  • New Democrat Government with tenuous majority
  • Ambitious legislative plans
  • Bleak economic back-drop
• An angry populace:
  • TARP bailouts/Wall St bonuses
  • Recession and high unemployment
  • Perception that Govt. contributed to crisis
• Aggressive case for new regulation based on:
  • Lack of confidence in current systems and regulation
  • "Too big to fail" demonstrating that regulators lack the toolsets necessary to deal with such events
  • High leverage across the financial system and the economy
  • Poor risk management by existing participants
  • Opaque shadow banking system and opaque derivatives markets

He summarised that Housing and the Credit Rating Agencies were the key fundamentals behind the financial crisis.

Paul said that with the new regulation had the following features:

• The Act is a sweeping revision of financial regulation in the US
  • few dodged the regulatory changes (notably insurance managed to do this)
• The Federal Reserve has emerged pre-eminent amongst all regulatory bodies in the US.
• Significant discretion has been yielded to regulators to work out specifics
• Sheer size and ambiguous wording of the Act exacerbates the uncertainty in the market and economy and will require further fixes over coming years
• The Act does not reform Government Sponsored Enterprises (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac)
• Far from reducing/simplifying the number of agencies involved in regulation the Act eliminated 1 agency and created 13 more
• Paul asked the question whether spreads and volatility will rise in the market due to new regulation (such as the Volcker rule) and whether ultimately this will trickle down to hinder or benefit SMEs.
• The Act will likely result in regulatory arbitrage opportunities and Paul said this was not a good thing for the United States

Paul said that in his view Congress learned the wrong lessons from the crisis:

• No reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
• Government Housing Policy left unaddressed
• Transparency still lacking despite efforts from FASB on fair value
• International Policy Co-ordination is still an open question as to its extent
• No reform of existing regulator structures
• The crisis has resulted in payoffs to favoured groups (Unions, Trial Lawyers etc)

Paul talked about how hedge funds and private equity funds were going to experienced increased regulation with them having to register if they have over $100M assets under management and future implications for systemic risk provisions. He mentioned that Venture Capital investments had escaped being required to register if the lock-up period was over 2 years.

He briefly discussed the coming changes in OTC derivatives on centralised clearing, post trade reporting and new liability provisions. Paul was also concerned about certain SEC related issues such as "Whistleblower" provisions which contain a bounty programme of about 10-30% of any fine subsequently awarded against a financial institution. He re-iterated that it was not yet clear what all of the bodies involved in regulation would be doing, and at the same time as this was the case the very same bodies were also being given very strong powers such as that of legal subpoena.

Paul was a very knowledgeable speaker and had some good points to make. Listening to him speak it would seem from my perspective that the Act is a prime example of "being seen to be doing something" to address the crisis rather than something better structured, with all of "law of unintended consequencies" risks that such an initiative entails.

 

 

 

Moving to America - people great, bureaucracy less so...

Apologies that there have been few blog posts lately. Summer has been very busy as I have just moved to the New York area with my family. Whilst we had to do a lot of preparation with going to the US embassy etc for visas, the move finally became "real" for me when all of the furniture in our house was removed for shipping to the US, and we ended up effectively camping in our own home for a few weeks. The day of the flight over seemed like the start of a holiday, except it became a peculiar one in that we weren't coming back any day soon.

I am pleased to report that all has gone well and that people here have been very welcoming. Kids settled into school fine and are already developing strange mid-Atlantic accents. I am enjoying walking down the street and saying "hello" to people without fear that they will avert their eyes and simply look down at the floor - one of the worst parts of stereotypical English behaviour in London.

There are many things that the Americans do wonderfully well: seriously huge lorries that actually look like my old Tonka toys; double/triple/quadruple garages; bathrooms; walk-in wardrobes; metros that announce "Stand away from the closing doors" in a voice that is both pleasant and excited at this fact - much in contrast to the depressing "Mind the gap, mind the gap" of the London Underground.

Putting aside all these positives (the people being the biggest positive), there are some things that are puzzlingly not done well at all. On using my American bank account I wanted to set up a regular monthly payment to my landlord. After initially being told that this could not be done, I then get directed to part of the bank web site where I am told to enter my landlord's name and address, but nothing more. Puzzled I ask whether they also need his bank account details, but apparently not, because each month on the day I have chosen they will physically print off a cheque for the amount I have specified and physically mail it to him! So much for the land of technology and financial innovation?...

Anyway, on to the pinnacle of bureacracy here in the United States, the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). DMV sounds like a disease and indeed I believe that all who work there are obviously ill in some way. Buying a car in the US is complicated process if you are not a US citizen and do not yet have a Social Security Number (SSN). I spent around 18 hours of my life queuing trying to get license plates for my car at the DMV, being told to move from one queue to another with no rhyme nor reason, and often to be told after queuing for a few hours that I was in the wrong queue. These people make US Immigration at JFK look positively helpful and friendly. The one consolation? They treat their fellow Americans just as badly as they treat foreigners, so once I was through the first few hours there were plenty of people wanting to talk about how bad it was.

Anyway, back to the real (currently surreal?) world of financial markets and financial markets IT. I hope you had a good summer, mine has been an interesting one and I look forward to the next couple of years in the United States of America.